Nov 8, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 8 17:00:24 UTC 2021 (20211108 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211108 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211108 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211108 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211108 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211108 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 081700

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1100 AM CST Mon Nov 08 2021

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
   States on Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Precipitation should be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of
   northern/central CA as a shortwave trough moves quickly eastward
   from this region over the Sierras and into the Great Basin. While an
   occasional lightning flash or two may occur across these areas the
   first couple hours of the period, instability should remain too
   meager for a more meaningful lightning threat (10% or greater
   chance) after 12Z Tuesday morning. Otherwise, a strong mid-level jet
   embedded within a large-scale upper trough is forecast to move
   across parts of WA/OR through the day. Large-scale ascent associated
   with this jet, combined with rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures
   and the development of weak instability, may support low-topped
   convection producing isolated lightning flashes across western WA
   and far northwestern OR, mainly Tuesday afternoon. Elsewhere, modest
   low-level moisture should gradually advance northward Tuesday night
   across the southern Plains in a low-level warm advection regime.
   However, storms are not currently expected owing to the weak
   elevated instability forecast and lingering convective inhibition.

   ..Gleason.. 11/08/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z