Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
45,611
8,073,063
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
62,201
8,616,989
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
62,405
8,647,602
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
SPC AC 090626
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CST Tue Nov 09 2021
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Plains. Hail
and locally damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards with these
storms.
...Southern Plains...
A mid/upper trough will be oriented over the High Plains Wednesday
morning, and pivot eastward toward the mid-MO and lower MS Valleys
by Thursday morning. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to
develop over northwest TX and migrate east near the Red River
vicinity while a cold front advances southeast across OK/TX during
the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Increasing southerly low
level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward, with upper 50s to
low 60s dewpoints as far north as southeast KS.
Increasing, yet still modest, boundary-layer moisture beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates will support weak destabilization (less than
1000 /kg MLCAPE) by afternoon. As the upper trough ejects eastward,
effective shear will increase to around 30-40 kt in conjunction with
increasing ascent along the southeastward-advancing cold front.
While weak instability and a lack of better quality boundary-layer
moisture will limit overall severe potential, at least a few
organized cells capable of hail and locally damaging gusts will be
possible from late afternoon into the evening hours. Tornado
potential appears low, again due to poor low-level instability, but
favorably curved low-level hodographs are noted in forecast
soundings. A brief tornado could occur near the surface low where
low-level shear will be maximized and relatively greater low-level
dew points will be present.
..Leitman.. 11/09/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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