Nov 10, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 10 17:12:33 UTC 2021 (20211110 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211110 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211110 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211110 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211110 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211110 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 101712

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1112 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Shortwave trough currently moving through the central and southern
   Plains is forecast to reach the mid MS Valley early Thursday
   morning. It is expected to continue northeastward throughout the day
   Thursday, while also becoming more negatively tilted as it
   accelerates in response as another fast-moving shortwave trough
   moves through the northern/central Plains. At the surface, an
   occluded low initially over the upper MS Valley will drift
   northward/north-northwestward as secondary low develops along the
   triple point over the OH Valley. A cold front will extend
   southwestward from the triple point, which is forecast near the
   central MO/IL border early Thursday morning, and progress
   eastward/southeastward throughout the day. 

   Limited moisture return ahead of the front will result in an
   increasingly narrow/limited warm sector north of the TN Valley where
   the stronger forcing for ascent is expected. This displacement of
   the better forcing for ascent from the more favorable low-level
   moisture/buoyancy, as well as front-parallel deep-shear vectors, is
   forecast to limit storm depth, persistence, and severity along and
   ahead of the front. A damaging gust or two may occur within the
   shallow convection across portions of the middle OH Valley and/or TN
   Valley, but the very isolated nature of the coverage precludes
   introducing any severe probabilities with this outlook. Much of this
   activity is also expected to lack the updraft depth needed to
   produce lightning.

   Farther west, a few of the deeper updrafts may be able to produce
   lightning along the Pacific Northwest coast, primarily early
   Thursday morning and late Thursday night/early Friday morning.

   ..Mosier.. 11/10/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z