Nov 11, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 11 17:28:59 UTC 2021 (20211111 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211111 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211111 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 42,019 36,016,675 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211111 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 16,262 23,133,196 New York, NY...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...Providence, RI...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211111 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 42,451 36,127,407 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211111 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 111728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible
   Friday morning through Friday afternoon from the northern
   Mid-Atlantic into southern New England.

   ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England...
   A strong and mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered
   over the Upper MS Valley early Friday morning. This cyclone is
   expected to move gradually eastward throughout the day, while a
   series of shortwave troughs rotate around it. Strong cyclonic flow
   aloft will also accompany this cyclone, with even stronger flow
   attendant to the shortwave troughs that are rotating through. 

   One such shortwave is forecast to move from the middle OH Valley
   northeastward through the Lower Great Lakes region/Northeast,
   accompanied by a strong jet streak of 100+ kt at 500 mb. The
   addition forcing associated with this shortwave will likely result
   in a strongly forced line of mostly shallow convection along the
   front. The depth of this convection will be limited by buoyancy,
   although occasional lightning flashes do appear possible. The
   strongest flow aloft will likely lag behind this convective line,
   but strong deep-layer flow will still be in place across much of the
   northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Additionally, low-level flow is
   expected to strengthen within the warm sector ahead of the shortwave
   trough, with over 50 kt of flow forecast around 1 km. Consequently,
   strong wind gusts appear possible within the strongly forced shallow
   convective line expected to move across the region, especially if
   deeper updrafts are realized (either via storm mergers and/or more
   buoyancy). A tornado or two could also occur over southern New
   England in areas where a robust low-level veering wind profile will
   overlap low 60s dewpoints during the early afternoon.

   ..Mosier.. 11/11/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z