Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 120600
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Saturday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Large-scale upper troughing will be maintained over much of the
eastern CONUS on Saturday as multiple embedded shortwave troughs
move east-northeastward across this region. One such shortwave
trough is forecast to shift quickly from the central Appalachians
across the Mid-Atlantic and New England by Saturday evening. Strong
low/mid-level flow is forecast over these areas in association with
the ejecting shortwave trough, and as a coastal low deepens while
developing from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. However,
low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited across this
region owing to a prior frontal passage in the Day 1 time frame. Any
storms that can form in this regime will probably remain elevated
due to the limited boundary-layer instability. Still, given the
strength of the flow aloft, occasional gusty winds reaching the
surface may occur if greater buoyancy than currently forecast can be
realized.
Elsewhere, isolated storms may develop during the day along/ahead of
a cold front moving southward across the FL Peninsula. Poor
mid-level lapse rates along with only modest forcing for ascent
aloft should limit overall storm coverage. Occasional lightning
flashes may also occur downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario with
low-topped convection through Saturday afternoon, as weak
instability develops over the water owing to cold mid-level
temperatures with the upper trough over the eastern CONUS.
..Gleason.. 11/12/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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