Nov 13, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 13 16:37:34 UTC 2021 (20211113 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211113 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211113 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211113 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211113 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211113 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 131637

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1037 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are generally not expected across the contiguous
   United States on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Dry and stable conditions are expected across the CONUS on Sunday,
   in the wake of multiple cold-frontal passages across the central and
   eastern states and the Gulf of Mexico. Another pocket of cold
   midlevel temperatures (colder than -15C at 700 mb) will move over
   Lake Michigan during the day, and Lake Huron and Lake Erie late
   Sunday night, resulting in weak low-level buoyancy, though it
   remains uncertain if lake-enhanced convection will become deep
   enough to support any lightning activity. Elsewhere, thunderstorms
   are not expected.

   ..Dean.. 11/13/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z