Nov 15, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 15 05:42:19 UTC 2021 (20211115 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211115 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211115 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211115 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211115 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211115 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 150542

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1142 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
   on Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   An upper trough/low will move eastward across western/central Canada
   and the north-central CONUS on Tuesday. At the surface, shallow and
   modest low-level moisture is forecast to return northward through
   the period across parts of the southern Plains and lower/mid MS
   Valley along and ahead of a cold front. Even so, a strong low-level
   cap will likely inhibit the development of appreciable instability
   ahead of the front, and convection capable of producing lightning
   appears unlikely across the CONUS.

   ..Gleason.. 11/15/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z