Nov 16, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 16 06:00:15 UTC 2021 (20211116 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211116 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211116 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211116 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211116 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211116 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 160600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
   States on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   An upper trough/low will move eastward across central Canada and
   from the Plains to the Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. At the
   surface, a low over southern Manitoba Wednesday morning should
   develop eastward across Ontario through the day. A cold front
   extending from this low is forecast to sweep generally
   east-southeastward across the Midwest/Great Lakes, mid/lower MS
   Valley, and southern Plains through the period.

   Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the cold front,
   but surface dewpoints are expected to mostly remain in the mid to
   upper 50s. Various forecast soundings across the warm sector
   indicate that a low-level inversion should inhibit the potential for
   convection through much of the day. This cap will gradually be
   eroded as lift associated with the upper trough overspreads parts of
   the southern Plains, lower MS Valley, and Mid-South Wednesday
   evening/night. Isolated thunderstorms may eventually develop along
   the front across these areas, but instability will likely remain
   quite weak. There should also be a tendency for any storms that form
   to be quickly undercut by the front and become elevated. Even with
   some modest enhancement to the deep-layer shear associated with the
   upper trough, the previously described limiting factors should keep
   the overall severe threat low on Wednesday.

   ..Gleason.. 11/16/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z