Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 161729
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
States on Wednesday.
...Discussion...
As an upper low moves eastward across southern portions of the
Canadian Prairie into Ontario, broader cyclonic flow/troughing south
of this feature will shift across the central third of the U.S.
through the period.
As this feature advances, so will an associated surface cold front
-- initially forecast to extend from the Upper Great Lakes (at the
triple point of a southern Manitoba occluded low) southwestward to
the southern Plains.
As this front progresses eastward into the evening, modest low-level
theta-e advection across the lower Mississippi Valley and vicinity
may provide sufficient -- mainly elevated -- instability to support
development of a few thunderstorms, within a broader area of frontal
shower activity. Weak instability however should preclude any
severe risk.
A few thunderstorms may also spread northward into southern Florida
overnight, but again -- severe storms are not expected.
..Goss.. 11/16/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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