Nov 18, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 18 17:23:01 UTC 2021 (20211118 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211118 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211118 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211118 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211118 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211118 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 181723

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1123 AM CST Thu Nov 18 2021

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
   States on Friday.

   ...Discussion...
   An eastern U.S. upper trough will cross the Northeast/New England
   Friday, leaving a generally westerly/low-amplitude flow field in its
   wake.

   At the surface, a cold front -- already well off the New England and
   Middle Atlantic Coasts at the start of the period -- will continue
   eastward across the western Atlantic, with only the trailing portion
   of this front remaining inland, over south Florida.

   In the wake of this front, cool/dry/stable air will encompass much
   of the country, as high pressure largely prevails.  Given this,
   little potential for thunder is evident, with the exception of
   southern Florida.  Here, showers and a few thunderstorms will be
   possible in the vicinity of the gradually weakening, remnant cold
   front.  Severe weather is not expected.

   ..Goss.. 11/18/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z