Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 191645
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Fri Nov 19 2021
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
Much of the CONUS will see zonal flow aloft early Saturday. This
upper-level flow pattern will become more amplified through the day
as a potent shortwave trough digs southward into the northern Plains
and upper Mississippi Valley region by early Sunday morning. High
pressure will build into the Great Basin and much of the Plains. A
cold front will move southward through the Plains, reaching near the
Red River and mid-Mississippi Valley late in the period. A remnant
cold frontal boundary will be situated across southern Florida.
Diffuse surface heating near the stalled front in southern Florida,
along with any potential sea breeze interactions, will likely
produce isolated thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. Severe
weather, however, is not expected with this activity owing to poor
lapse rates.
Weak and elevated instability may develop within a warm advection
regime in parts of the Ohio River Valley. With only very modest
forcing for ascent and very limited buoyancy, potential for
thunderstorms remains less than 10%.
..Wendt.. 11/19/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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