Nov 20, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 20 05:36:28 UTC 2021 (20211120 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211120 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211120 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211120 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211120 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211120 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 200536

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1136 PM CST Fri Nov 19 2021

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Overall upper pattern is forecast to amplify throughout the day on
   Sunday as a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the central and
   eastern CONUS lead to a deepening of the parent upper trough and
   upper ridging moves across CA into the Great Basin. By early Monday
   morning, expansive upper troughing will likely extend from the
   Hudson Bay to the central Gulf Coast, with cyclonic flow throughout
   this trough covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. At the
   same time, upper ridging will likely extend from the Great Basin to
   the central British Columbia/Alberta border. 

   The lead shortwave trough within the deepening parent upper trough
   is expected to move eastward from the central Plains through the Mid
   MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys. An associated surface low will track
   northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, moving from
   south-central OK/north TX northeastward through the TN Valley. Cold
   front attendant to this low will sweep southeastward across the
   southern Plains and Mid-South/Lower MS Valley, likely extending from
   western TN southwestward into the TX Hill County. Despite stable
   low-level conditions, cold temperatures aloft may provide enough
   buoyancy for a few elevated storms across the Mid-South ahead of the
   front. A few thunderstorms are also possible in the vicinity of this
   front during the afternoon and evening within the modestly moist and
   buoyant air mass west-central LA into south TX. 

   Farther east, a few sea-breeze thunderstorms are possible across
   central and southern FL Sunday afternoon. Additionally, showers and
   thunderstorms will likely increase across the Gulf Stream within the
   warm sector ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and cold
   front. Much of this activity will remain offshore but a few flashes
   are possible over the NC Outer Banks.

   ..Mosier.. 11/20/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z