Nov 23, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 23 06:20:38 UTC 2021 (20211123 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211123 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211123 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211123 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211123 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211123 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 230620

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 AM CST Tue Nov 23 2021

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on
   Wednesday, but severe storm potential is currently low.

   ...Synopsis...
   An expansive upper trough is forecast to cover much of the western 
   and central CONUS early Wednesday. This upper trough is expected to
   gradually progress eastward, while several embedded shortwave
   troughs rotate through it. Guidance continues to suggest this upper
   trough will trend toward bifurcation late Wednesday night/early
   Thursday morning, with an embedded shortwave remaining progressive
   across the Canadian Prairie Provinces and northern Plains while
   another less progressive embedded shortwave trough moves across
   southern CA, western/southern AZ, and the northern Baja Peninsula.

   ...Southern Plains...
   A cold front is expected to extend from a low over central MN
   southwestward through the eastern TX Panhandle. This front will
   sweep southeastward throughout the period and is expected
   to stretch from eastern Lower MI southwestward into the TX Hill
   Country by early Thursday morning. Low-level moisture will advect
   northward across the southern Plains ahead of this front, with mid
   50s dewpoints reaching into northeast OK and low 60s dewpoints
   reaching north-central TX. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
   Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning both in the
   vicinity of the front and throughout the warm sector. A
   predominantly elevated storm mode is anticipated in both of these
   regions, with instability remaining modest as well. Even so,
   vertical shear is strong enough to support updraft organization
   within any cells that persist and deepen, although anticipated low
   coverage and limited predictability preclude introducing any
   probabilities.

   ..Mosier.. 11/23/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z