Nov 23, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 23 17:20:09 UTC 2021 (20211123 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211123 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211123 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211123 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211123 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211123 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 231720

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 AM CST Tue Nov 23 2021

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on
   Wednesday, but severe storm potential is currently low.

   ...Synopsis...

   An upper trough will be situated from the northern Plains to
   northwest Mexico Wednesday morning. The northern branch of the
   trough will progress eastward to the Upper Midwest/Mid-MO Valley by
   Thursday morning, while the southern branch stalls over the
   Southwest/northwest Mexico. At the surface, a cold front will extend
   from central MN to central KS early in the period, and develop
   southeast, extending from Lower MI to central TX by Thursday
   morning.

   ...Southern Plains...

   Southerly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F
   surface dewpoints as far north as central OK ahead of the surface
   cold front Wednesday afternoon/evening. Modest midlevel lapse rates
   will result in weak instability across parts of the southern Plains.
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but capping between 850-700 mb
   will mainly keep convection elevated for most of the period, and
   overall severe potential appears low.

   ..Leitman.. 11/23/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z