Nov 24, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 24 06:27:59 UTC 2021 (20211124 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211124 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211124 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211124 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211124 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211124 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 240627

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill
   Country/south Texas into the Arklatex region, but severe-storm
   potential is currently low.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough is expected to extend from western Ontario
   southwestward across the Plains and Southwest through the central
   Baja Peninsula early Thursday morning. Medium-range guidance is in
   good agreement that this upper trough will fully bifurcate during
   the period, with the northern portion continuing
   eastward/southeastward and the southern part developing into a
   closed circulation over the central Baja Peninsula.

   At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from a low over
   far northeastern Ontario southwestward to the Edwards Plateau in TX
   Thursday morning. Modest low-level moisture and buoyancy are
   expected to be in place ahead of this front from the TX Hill Country
   into the Arklatex, and showers and isolated thunderstorms will
   likely be ongoing in this region at the start of the period. Much of
   the stronger southwesterly flow aloft will displaced north and west
   of the surface cold front, and this displacement will limit the
   overall severe potential. Even so, a few organized/strong updrafts
   capable of an isolated damaging wind gust and/or marginal hail could
   occur, particularly as storms along the front interact with any
   pre-frontal warm sector development. The cold front is expected to
   move off the TX coast by Thursday evening, with stable conditions in
   its wake.

   Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the Plains
   as well as over the remaining portions of the CONUS.

   ..Mosier.. 11/24/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z