Nov 24, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 24 17:07:29 UTC 2021 (20211124 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211124 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211124 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211124 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211124 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211124 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 241707

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1107 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill
   Country/south Texas into the Arklatex region on Thursday, but
   severe-storm potential is currently low.

   ...Synopsis...

   An upper low over northwest Mexico will become cut-off from the
   large-scale trough over the central U.S. on Thursday. This will
   result in stronger deep-layer southwesterly flow remaining over the
   Midwest as the upper trough pivots east toward the lower Great Lakes
   and the southeastern U.S. coast by Friday morning. At the surface, a
   cold front will extend from Lower MI to the TX Hill Country at the
   beginning of the period. 

   Ahead of the cold front, isolated thunderstorms will likely be
   ongoing from the TX Hill Country toward the Arklatex vicinity during
   the morning. Mid 60s dewpoints will exist ahead of the front across
   southeast into south TX, where modest destabilization will occur
   through peak heating. A few strong storms are possible as convection
   ahead of the front interacts with the modest warm sector before the
   cold front moves offshore from the TX coast during the evening.
   However, modest low/midlevel lapse rates, and weak shear from
   roughly 1-3 km, will largely limit longevity/better-organized
   updrafts, and severe potential appears low at this time.

   ..Leitman.. 11/24/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z