Nov 25, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 25 06:28:36 UTC 2021 (20211125 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211125 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211125 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211125 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211125 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211125 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 250628

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 AM CST Thu Nov 25 2021

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   No thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the contiguous
   United States on Friday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper troughing is forecast to cover the eastern CONUS early Friday
   morning, while an upper low remains centered over the Baja Peninsula
   and a belt a strong westerlies stretches from the northeast Pacific
   Ocean into the northern High Plains. The eastern CONUS upper trough 
   is expected to remain progressive, quickly moving off the Eastern
   Seaboard while becoming more negatively tilted with time. A
   shortwave trough will move quickly through the westerlies, moving
   across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies and reaching the
   northern/central High Plains by early Saturday morning. At the same
   time, the upper low over Baja is expected to slowly drift eastward
   into northwest Mexico.

   At the surface, a cold front will likely stretch from southern New
   England southwestward through the eastern Carolinas and off the
   coast of the central FL Peninsula early Friday. This front will move
   eastward/southeastward throughout the day, but limited low-level
   moisture and buoyancy preceding the front will preclude thunderstorm
   development. A dry continental air mass is anticipated across the
   remainder of central and eastern CONUS in the wake of this front,
   with stable conditions precluding thunderstorm development.

   ..Mosier.. 11/25/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z