Nov 25, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 25 17:13:42 UTC 2021 (20211125 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211125 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211125 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211125 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211125 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211125 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 251713

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 AM CST Thu Nov 25 2021

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   No thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the contiguous
   United States on Friday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large-scale upper trough will move across the northeast U.S.
   Friday, with a weaker embedded shortwave trough over the northern
   Rockies/Plains embedded within a belt of stronger west-northwest
   flow extending from the Pacific Northwest to the mid-Atlantic coast.
   An upper low initially over Baja Peninsula will move east across
   Sonora and Chihuahua states in northern Mexico towards far West TX. 
   A cold front extending from New England southward across the eastern
   Carolinas and northern FL Friday morning will move south/east, and
   offshore of the FL Keys Friday night.

   In the wake of the eastern U.S. cold front, a dry/stable continental
   air mass will preclude thunderstorm development.  In advance of the
   front over the central/southern FL Peninsula, low-level moisture
   will remain modest at best with negligible buoyancy anticipated.  As
   a result, thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the CONUS
   on Friday.

   ..Bunting.. 11/25/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z