SPC AC 280515

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday
   through Monday night.

   ...Discussion...
   As mid-level ridging builds within the westerlies across the
   mid-latitude eastern Pacific, toward British Columbia and the
   Pacific Northwest, models indicate that a couple of short wave
   perturbations within weakly separated branches of downstream flow
   may progress inland through the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S.
   Rockies during this period.  However, larger-scale flow appears
   likely to remain broadly anticyclonic, with relatively warm
   mid-levels and little appreciable low-level moistening maintaining
   generally stable conditions.

   East of the Rockies, broadly confluent northwesterly flow appears
   likely to persist, in the wake of large-scale mid-level troughing
   forecast to take on an increasing negative tilt offshore of the
   Atlantic Seaboard.  It appears that this will occur as a vigorous
   embedded short wave trough pivots northeast of the northern Mid
   Atlantic and New England coast, with associated forcing for
   large-scale ascent contributing to strong continuing surface
   cyclogenesis east of the Cape Cod vicinity into the Canadian
   Maritimes by late Monday night.  Models indicate that a trailing
   reinforcing intrusion of cold/dry air probably will spread as far
   south and west as the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico, with
   surface ridging building along an axis near the Gulf coast.

   ..Kerr.. 11/28/2021

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