SPC AC 290459

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1059 PM CST Sun Nov 28 2021

   Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday
   through Tuesday night.

   ...Discussion...
   To the north of weak mid-level troughing within a branch of
   westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, it
   appears that a fairly prominent mid-level ridge will continue to
   build inland of the Pacific coast, through the Great Basin, during
   this period.  This is forecast to occur as a strong mid/upper jet
   rounds its crest, across the central Canadian/U.S. border area into
   the upper Mississippi Valley.  On the southern periphery of this
   jet, a substantive lower/mid-level moisture return is possible into
   the western slopes of the Washington Cascades, with more modest
   moistening in a plume extending across the northern Rockies and, at
   mid-levels, into parts of the northern Great Plains and middle
   Missouri Valley.  This moistening, coupled with lift associated with
   weak perturbations embedded within the broadly anticyclonic regime,
   may contribute to layers of very weak destabilization Tuesday into
   Tuesday night.  However, this appears likely to remain largely
   capped by warm layers aloft, precluding an appreciable risk for
   thunderstorm development.

   Farther east, in the wake of a deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone
   forecast to migrate north/northeast of the Canadian Maritimes,
   mid-level flow might trend a bit more zonal.  However, it still
   appears that it will remain at least broadly cyclonic and confluent
   across the Mississippi Valley into the western Atlantic, with
   potentially cool surface ridging being maintained across much of the
   Gulf Coast and Southeast.  Some low-level moistening might occur
   across the western Gulf of Mexico into northwestern Gulf coastal
   areas Tuesday through Tuesday night, but this is forecast to remain
   generally confined to a relatively shallow surface-based layer.

   ..Kerr.. 11/29/2021

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