SPC AC 021656

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1056 AM CST Thu Dec 02 2021

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible Friday through
   Friday night, but a low probability of thunderstorms may develop
   across parts of the southern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi
   Valley vicinity.

   ...Synopsis...

   A stagnant weather pattern will persist across much of the CONUS,
   with strong mid/upper west/northwesterly flow stretching from the
   Pacific Northwest toward the Mid-Atlantic. In southern stream flow,
   a weak upper shortwave perturbation will drift eastward from
   southern CA toward the Four Corners vicinity. At the same time,
   another mid/upper shortwave impulse will lift east/northeast across
   TX to the lower MS Valley. 

   Weak surface low pressure will drift east across the southern Plains
   in response to the series of southern stream mid/upper shortwave
   troughs, resulting in southerly low level flow and northward
   transport of Gulf moisture across TX toward the Arklatex/lower MS
   Valley vicinity. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for weak
   destabilization from parts of central/eastern TX toward to Ozarks.
   Much of this instability will remain elevated, confined above a
   stout warm layer around 1-2.5 km. Combined with modest effective
   shear, severe potential is expected to remain low, though a few
   thunderstorms are possible, mainly after 00z.

   ..Leitman.. 12/02/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z