Dec 3, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 3 06:20:57 UTC 2021 (20211203 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211203 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211203 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211203 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211203 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211203 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 030620

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 AM CST Fri Dec 03 2021

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
   States on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   The primary mid-level westerly jet should remain confined to the
   northern tier of the CONUS on Saturday, while gradual amplification
   occurs over the northwestern/north-central states by the end of the
   period as a shortwave trough strengthens over this region. A subtle
   southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to advance eastward
   across the lower MS Valley and parts of the Southeast through the
   day, while another upper trough/low moves slowly eastward across
   Baja California and portions of the Southwest. At the surface, a
   cold front should make only slow southward progress Saturday across
   the Mid-South/TN Valley as high pressure shifts from the
   northern/central Plains and Midwest towards the Atlantic Coast by
   early Sunday morning. An area of weak low pressure may exist along
   the Red River (OK/TX border vicinity), with a dryline extending
   southward from this low across central TX.

   Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning from portions
   of northeast TX towards the lower MS Valley in association with the
   weak southern-stream shortwave trough described above. Additional
   convective development through the day appears uncertain, as
   large-scale ascent behind the departing shortwave trough is expected
   to remain nebulous. Modest capping across the warm sector may also
   tend to inhibit thunderstorm development through much of the day.
   Still, there appears to be some chance for at least isolated
   thunderstorms to develop by Saturday evening along/east of the weak
   surface low across parts of north-central/northeast TX and eastern
   OK. Short-term guidance continues to show variability regarding the
   quality and northward extent of low-level moisture return across
   these areas, which impacts the degree of boundary-layer instability
   that may develop. Regardless, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain
   fairly weak, which should generally limit the potential for
   organized severe thunderstorms. Additional convection may develop
   Saturday night from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and
   Mid-South as a southwesterly low-level jet slowly strengthens,
   although this activity will likely remain elevated.

   ..Gleason.. 12/03/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z