Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 031703
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CST Fri Dec 03 2021
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
States on Saturday.
...South-central states...
A series of weak mid/upper shortwave impulses will migrate eastward
across the southern Plains and the lower MS Valley/Southeast
vicinity on Saturday. At the surface, a weak low will drift east
across OK/north TX. A dryline will extend south/southwest from the
low into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward
across the Ozark Plateau and TN Valley vicinity as surface high
pressure shifts east from the northern/central Plains to the
Mid-Atlantic.
Boundary-layer moisture will increase on southerly low-level flow
across much of eastern TX into eastern OK, the Ozarks and lower MS
Valley. However, a warm layer around 1-2 km will preclude
surface-based convective potential. Nevertheless, steep midlevel
lapse rates will aid in weak destabilization and isolated
thunderstorms are possible. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will
remain weak ahead of the upper shortwave trough, with effective
shear magnitudes expected to remain less than 25 kt. This should
limit potential for organized severe thunderstorms amid elevated
convection.
..Leitman.. 12/03/2021
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