Dec 7, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Dec 7 16:55:22 UTC 2021 (20211207 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211207 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211207 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211207 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211207 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211207 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071655

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 AM CST Tue Dec 07 2021

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
   States on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough will quickly move from the Great Lakes and OH Valley
   into the Northeast, with primarily zonal flow across the remainder
   of the CONUS through Thursday morning. At the surface, a front will
   sink south into northern FL, becoming stationary across the northern
   Gulf of Mexico, with western parts of the boundary returning north
   across TX.

   Weak instability with poor lapse rates aloft are forecast along and
   north of the surface front Wednesday morning over the Southeast, and
   lift associated with the upper trough will likely result in a few
   thunderstorms mainly from GA into SC through midday. Deep-layer
   shear will be strong, but marginal instability, strongly veering
   low-level flow and minimal heating should result in waning
   thunderstorm coverage throughout the day.

   ..Jewell.. 12/07/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z