Dec 8, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Dec 8 06:00:23 UTC 2021 (20211208 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211208 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211208 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211208 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211208 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211208 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 080600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 AM CST Wed Dec 08 2021

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
   States on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Large-scale upper troughing will amplify over the western CONUS on
   Thursday. A southern-stream shortwave trough initially west of Baja
   California will shift quickly east-northeastward over northern
   Mexico through the day. This feature is forecast to eventually reach
   the southern High Plains late Thursday night into early Friday
   morning while being absorbed into the synoptic-scale upper trough
   over the western states. As pronounced large-scale ascent preceding
   the upper trough overspreads the Rockies and adjacent High Plains,
   lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains through the
   period. Farther east, a strong low-level mass response will
   transport rich low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward
   across central/east TX, the lower MS Valley, Mid-South, and parts of
   the Deep South by the end of the period. 

   Mainly elevated convection appears possible across this general
   region in the warm and moist low-level advection regime. Better
   thunderstorm chances may develop late in the period from Thursday
   night into early Friday morning as low-level moisture gradually
   increases in tandem with a modestly strengthening southwesterly
   low-level jet. MUCAPE is forecast to remain fairly weak owing to
   poor mid-level lapse rates, which should temper the overall severe
   potential with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop on
   Thursday. Across the Pacific Northwest, isolated lightning flashes
   appear possible mainly along/near the WA/OR Coast with low-topped
   convection as cold mid-level temperatures associated with a
   progressive shortwave trough overspread this region.

   ..Gleason.. 12/08/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z