Dec 8, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Dec 8 17:06:26 UTC 2021 (20211208 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211208 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211208 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211208 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211208 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211208 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 081706

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1106 AM CST Wed Dec 08 2021

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm activity will be minimal across the contiguous United
   States on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Strong winds aloft will encompass most of the CONUS on Thursday,
   with the primary feature of interest an upper trough developing
   across the West. A surface low will develop over CO Thursday night
   into Friday morning, with increasing southerly winds across TX and
   the Lower MS Valley. Although surface dewpoints will rise into the
   60s F as far north as Memphis by 12Z Wednesday, forecast soundings
   indicate capping will be in place for surface-based parcels, and
   perhaps even for elevated parcels across most areas. However,
   minimal elevated instability may combine with subtle lift via warm
   advection, leading to a few elevated showers/thunderstorms late in
   the period. The greatest chance of thunderstorms appears to be from
   LA across AL and into western GA. Given the weak instability, severe
   weather is not expected.

   Elsewhere, minimal instability may support low-topped convection
   across the coastal Pacific Northwest on the cool side of a midlevel
   jet which will dive south into western OR during the day.

   ..Jewell.. 12/08/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z