Dec 11, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 11 17:19:28 UTC 2021 (20211211 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211211 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211211 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211211 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211211 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211211 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 111719

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 AM CST Sat Dec 11 2021

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms will be possible across the coastal Pacific
   Northwest on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   An upper trough will quickly exit the Northeast with high pressure
   from the MS Valley to the Mid Atlantic resulting in dry and stable
   conditions across much of the CONUS. 

   To the west, persistent southwest flow aloft will exist over the
   Pacific Northwest, where temperature at 500 mb are forecast to be
   colder than -30 C. Steep lapse rates will develop especially during
   the heating hours, with MUCAPE on the order of 200-300 J/kg
   possible. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are thus expected to
   develop during the day, with little focus.

   Overnight, a broad surface trough will deepen offshore, and some
   increase in showers and storms are possible mainly into the OR
   Coast. At that time, forecast soundings indicate little MUCAPE will
   be present, and as such, severe weather is not forecast despite
   strong shear profiles.

   ..Jewell.. 12/11/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z