Dec 12, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Dec 12 16:57:34 UTC 2021 (20211212 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211212 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211212 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211212 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211212 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211212 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 121657

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1057 AM CST Sun Dec 12 2021

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Florida
   Peninsula on Monday, and over parts of the West Coast and northern
   California.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad region of southwest flow aloft will exist over the western
   half of the CONUS on Monday as an upper trough amplifies and deepens
   just off the West Coast. A 90 kt midlevel speed max will exist
   during the day roughly from northern CA into ID, with gradual height
   falls during the day. The strongest cooling aloft will occur after
   00Z along the West Coast as a stronger, cyclonically curved speed
   max noses into central CA into Tuesday morning.

   While strong shear will be present over parts of CA, there will be
   little to no SBCAPE present, but strong large-scale ascent and
   minimal elevated instability may result in sporadic lightning
   flashes.

   Elsewhere, heights aloft will gradually rise over much of the East,
   but a weak midlevel cool pocket will affect GA and FL. Here,
   marginal moisture and instability may lead to a few deeper showers
   or thunderstorms in the easterly low-level flow regime along the
   eastern coast of FL, and perhaps across the Straits.

   ..Jewell.. 12/12/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z