Dec 13, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 13 17:14:12 UTC 2021 (20211213 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211213 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211213 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211213 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211213 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211213 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 131714

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1114 AM CST Mon Dec 13 2021

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday near portions of the
   West Coast and into southern Nevada and vicinity, as well as across
   parts of eastern and southern Florida.

   ...Discussion...
   A large upper trough is progged to shift into/across the western
   U.S. Tuesday, as will an attendant/associated surface cold front. 
   As this occurs, cool air aloft will contribute to showery
   convection, along with potential for a few/sporadic lightning
   flashes along portions of the West Coast.  This potential may spread
   into parts of southern Nevada, and later southwestern
   Utah/northwestern Arizona, as a low within the base of the trough
   approaches/crosses this region through 15/12Z.

   Meanwhile, ridging aloft will largely prevail over the eastern half
   of the country.  An exception will be a weak upper vort max which
   will linger across the Florida vicinity, and will contribute to
   potential for showers and possibly a couple of thunderstorms --
   mainly over southern and eastern portions of the Peninsula.

   Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.

   ..Goss.. 12/13/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z