Ames, IA...Mason City, IA...Fort Dodge, IA...Albert Lea, MN...Ledyard, IA...
MARGINAL
96,196
9,231,818
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Des Moines, IA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
41,416
2,110,136
Des Moines, IA...Rochester, MN...Waterloo, IA...Ames, IA...West Des Moines, IA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
19,314
796,167
Ames, IA...Ankeny, IA...Urbandale, IA...Mason City, IA...Fort Dodge, IA...
5 %
96,138
9,217,262
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Des Moines, IA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 140552
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Mon Dec 13 2021
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
A band of strong storms is expected to develop over the mid Missouri
Valley during the afternoon on Wednesday, shifting quickly toward
the upper Mississippi Valley into the evening. Damaging wind gusts
will be possible along the leading edge of this band.
...Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley...
A fast-moving upper-level trough will move from the southern Rockies
to the mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the system,
low-level moisture advection will take place with surface dewpoints
reaching near 60 F across parts of northern Missouri and Iowa. In
spite of this, instability will remain weak ahead of the approaching
trough. A warm nose associated with a powerful 100 knot 700 mb jet
is forecast to overspread southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa
during the afternoon. Model forecasts are in reasonable agreement
that convection will initiate nearer to the surface low to the west
and north of Omaha around 21Z. A line is forecast to move quickly
northeastward across western and northern Iowa into southern
Minnesota during the afternoon. Forecast soundings Wednesday
afternoon along this corridor have very strong wind fields with 50
to 60 knots of flow at 300 meters above ground level. Convection
that develops in this environment should be able to drive this flow
to the surface producing damaging wind gusts. Have introduced a
small slight risk for parts of western and northern Iowa into far
southern Minnesota along the expected path of the line of storms.
...Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks...
A shortwave trough will move into the southern High Plains Wednesday
night as a cold front advances southeastward across the central
Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to
increase into the lower to mid 60s F yielding MLCAPE in the 500 to
750 J/kg range. Model forecasts along the instability corridor
suggests that convective initiation will take place during the late
evening into the overnight period. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage moving southeastward into the Ozarks. Although
instability will remain weak, low to mid-level flow could be strong
enough for a marginal wind-damage threat.
..Broyles.. 12/14/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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