Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...North Little Rock, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
27,506
2,082,537
Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...North Little Rock, AR...Conway, AR...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
47,015
2,817,413
Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...North Little Rock, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
47,259
2,828,619
Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...North Little Rock, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...
SPC AC 150606
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CST Wed Dec 15 2021
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS...ARKLATEX AND OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage and hail threat is expected to develop on
Thursday from parts of east Texas into the Arklatex and Ozarks.
...East Texas/Arklatex/Ozarks...
An upper-level trough will move eastward through the Desert
Southwest on Thursday as west-southwest mid-level flow remains
established across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the southern
Plains, Arklatex and Ozarks. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints
in the lower to mid 60s F will likely yield MLCAPE in the 500 to
1000 J/kg range by early afternoon. As destabilization takes place
and low-level convergence increases along the front, scattered
convective initiation is expected. Thunderstorms should develop in
the early afternoon and expand in coverage from northeast Texas into
central Arkansas. Forecast soundings at 21Z along this corridor have
0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range which should be sufficient
for an isolated severe threat. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible with the stronger cells that form during the late
afternoon. Any severe threat that develops should remain localized
mainly due to the lack of large-scale ascent across the region. A
severe threat could linger into the evening.
..Broyles.. 12/15/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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