Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
47,434
3,166,447
Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
50,426
3,264,745
Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
56,585
3,438,232
Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...
SPC AC 151729
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Wed Dec 15 2021
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
A marginal risk for gusty winds and hail with a couple of stronger
storms may evolve Thursday from parts of northeastern Texas across
the Arklatex into Arkansas.
...Synopsis...
While upper troughing sweeps northeastward across the Great Lakes
into eastern Canada Thursday, a second trough will shift across the
western states, resulting in a broad area of cyclonic upper flow
persisting across North America Thursday.
At the surface, a deep surface cyclone will shift northeastward
across Ontario and into northern Quebec, while a trailing cold front
shifts across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and then into New England
overnight. Trailing portions of the boundary will elongate
west-to-east, lingering from the Mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley
into Texas through the period.
...Parts of northeastern Texas northeastward to eastern Arkansas...
Showers and possibly a few/embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing
near a slowly advancing cold front at the start of the period, from
southeastern Oklahoma northeastward into the Ohio Valley. As the
front sags a bit farther south, stalls, and eventually begins a slow
retreat northward overnight, scattered to isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms will likely linger across the region through the
period.
In general, convection should remain weak and largely disorganized,
as the upper trough well to the north shifts northeastward
into/across eastern Canada, leaving flat/featureless
west-southwesterly flow across the south-central states. Still,
with a moist boundary layer contributing to ample instability to
support storms, and sufficiently strong/veering flow through the
lower and middle troposphere yielding enough shear for organized
updrafts, a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out. Any risk
will likely maximize during the afternoon near peak diurnal heating,
though non-zero risk is apparent through Friday morning.
..Goss.. 12/15/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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