Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 160641
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible in north Texas and southeast Oklahoma Friday evening.
...North Texas/Southeast Oklahoma...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the central and
northern Plains on Friday as west to southwest mid-level flow
remains in place from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard.
At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the
southern Plains during the day. The front is forecast to move
through southern Oklahoma reaching north Texas during the evening.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be near 60 F with an axis
of instability developing ahead of the front. Forecast soundings
have MLCAPE peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg. This combined with
0-6 km shear in the 45 to 50 kt range should support a threat for
strong wind gusts and hail. Low-level convergence will be the main
driver for convective initiation. The lack of large-scale ascent and
relatively weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.
..Broyles.. 12/16/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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