SPC AC 161718

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO PARTS OF TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms -- and possible limited/local risk for strong wind
   gusts and hail with a stronger storm or two -- will be possible
   across parts of the southern Plains Friday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   Positively tilted upper troughing is forecast to move slowly
   eastward across the western -- and later the central -- U.S. on
   Friday, with ridges flanking the trough over both the West and East
   Coasts through the period.

   At the surface, a cold front stretching from the coastal New England
   and Mid Atlantic region west-southwestward into the southern Plains
   will linger through the first half of the period.  Later, a weak
   frontal wave is forecast to shift from the southern Plains to the
   lower Ohio Valley area, allowing a southward surge in the front
   across the southern Plains vicinity through the end of the period.

   ...Portions of southeastern Oklahoma southward into Texas...
   Showers and thunderstorms -- largely elevated anafrontally to the
   north of an overnight southeastward cold frontal surge -- will
   increase in coverage from southeastern Oklahoma and into Texas. 
   With a slightly diurnally-stable boundary layer expected ahead of
   the front, even storms developing near the boundary will likely
   remain slightly elevated.

   Still, ample instability is expected aloft, along with moderately
   strong (around 50 kt) mid-level west-southwesterly flow.  As such, a
   few stronger storms may evolve, and become capable of producing
   marginal hail -- or possibly a strong gust or two within
   near-frontal updrafts.

   ..Goss.. 12/16/2021

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