Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 171142
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA....
CORRECTED FOR MISSING LESS THAN 2% TORNADO LABEL
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are possible across
portions of south-central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
...Synopsis...
A positively tilted upper-level trough will move quickly east from
the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes/Northeast by Saturday night. As
this trough advances eastward, weak cyclogenesis is expected with a
surface low as it moves from the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic.
In the wake of this trough, strong high pressure will move into the
northern Plains which will lead to strong post-frontal flow and
cause the cold front to move quickly south-southeastward from Texas
to the Tennessee Valley. A few isolated to widely scattered severe
storms are possible along and ahead of this front across portions of
Texas and western Louisiana.
...Portions of central and eastern Texas into western Louisiana...
Deep low-level moisture will be in place across much of southeast
Texas and Louisiana at 12Z Saturday ahead of the surface front.
Widespread cloud cover is expected across much of the region which
should limit surface heating. However, surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s will provide sufficient instability for storm development.
Due to the fast movement of the surface front, storms along the
front are expected to move to the north of the front and become
elevated quickly which will limit the severe threat. However,
additional development is expected ahead of the surface front. These
storms may have some organization given the weak to moderate
instability and moderate to strong effective shear.
..Bentley.. 12/17/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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