Dec 18, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 18 06:52:19 UTC 2021 (20211218 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211218 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211218 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211218 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211218 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211218 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 180652

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
   States Sunday or Sunday Night.

   ...Synopsis...
   A positively tilted mid-level trough will move off the East Coast on
   Sunday with a secondary trough across northern Mexico. At the
   surface, a cold front will extend from a low-pressure center across
   the western Atlantic through the Carolinas and Georgia and into the
   central Gulf of Mexico.

   ...Eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia, and northern Florida...
   Some storm activity may occur along and ahead of a surface front
   near the coastal Carolinas and southeast Georgia Sunday afternoon.
   However, this storm activity is expected to be mostly weak as the
   forcing will be have moved northeast across the Atlantic and
   instability is expected to be mostly weak in the region.

   ..Bentley.. 12/18/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z