Dec 18, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 18 17:10:05 UTC 2021 (20211218 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211218 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211218 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211218 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211218 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211218 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 181710

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A positively-tilted, elongated upper trough will progress through
   the Mid-South before exiting the Mid-Atlantic Coast by early Monday
   morning. Across northern Mexico, a compact shortwave trough will
   shift into western and central Texas. A surface cold front will
   extend southwestward from a cyclone in the northwestern Atlantic,
   through the Coastal Carolinas, north Florida, and into the
   northern/central Gulf of Mexico.

   ...Coastal Carolinas...
   Precipitation will likely be ongoing Sunday morning across much of
   the region. While mid-level forcing will be stronger than to the
   southwest, the early timing of the front, poor mid-level lapse
   rates, and widespread cloud cover will greatly limit the
   destabilization that can occur. A stronger storm is possible along
   the immediate coast/barrier islands, but it seems more probable that
   the strongest activity remains offshore.

   ...North Florida/far southeastern Georgia...
   Greater surface heating is expected across this area which will lead
   to perhaps 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the front. Modest surface
   convergence and minimal mid-level ascent would suggest very limited
   coverage of storms. Furthermore, deep-layer shear along/ahead of the
   front will remain modest.

   ..Wendt.. 12/18/2021

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