Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 190611
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the Continental United
States on Monday or Monday Night.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will amplify as it moves across the Gulf Coast
States on Monday. This will lead to a deepening surface cyclone in
the Gulf which will move to the northeast Gulf of Mexico by 12Z
Tuesday. Farther east, a front will be stalled across central
Florida Monday morning. As the surface cyclone deepens to the west
and low-level flow strengthens, this front will start to move
northward as a warm front Monday Night and early Tuesday.
...Florida...
00Z model guidance still has considerable spread regarding the
amplitude of the wave crossing the Gulf of Mexico on Monday which
complicates the overall confidence in the forecast. The ECMWF has
been the most consistent with a more amplified system and a stronger
surface low. Toward the end of the period, the warm sector may start
to spread onshore across the western and northern Florida Peninsula
ahead of the deepening surface low. If enough low-level
warming/moistening can occur, some stronger storms may develop
between 06Z and 12Z Tuesday. Hodographs will elongate during this
period with a shear profile favorable for rotating updrafts with any
stronger cells. At this time, it appears the warm sector will remain
mostly offshore before 12Z Tuesday and therefore, no marginal risk
is warranted.
..Bentley.. 12/19/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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