Dec 21, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Dec 21 17:00:25 UTC 2021 (20211221 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211221 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211221 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211221 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211221 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211221 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 211700

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1100 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Pacific Coast from
   northern California northward, mainly during the evening and
   overnight.

   ...Synopsis...
   A relatively stable pattern will exist over the CONUS on Wednesday
   with northwest flow over the Plains and high pressure maintaining
   offshore flow over the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Coast. The
   exception will be along the coasts of WA, OR and northern CA,
   beneath cooler temperatures aloft in a southwest flow regime. Here,
   minimal instability will develop, on the order of 100 J/kg. Sporadic
   convective showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop during the
   day, with additional activity overnight as a cold front approaches
   the coast. Weak levels of instability should preclude a severe risk,
   however, moderate shear profiles and 40-50 kt 850 mb winds suggest
   gusty winds cannot be ruled out with some of the stronger
   showers/storms.

   ..Jewell.. 12/21/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z