Storm Prediction Center Dec 23, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Dec 23, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Updated: Thu Dec 23 16:56:21 UTC 2021 (

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Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Graphic

Day 2 Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic

20211223 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Day 2 Tornado Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic

20211223 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Day 2 Wind Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

20211223 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Day 2 Hail Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

   SPC AC 231656

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1056 AM CST Thu Dec 23 2021

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunder is possible along the Pacific Coast as well as over
   portions of the southern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau.

   ...Oregon and northern California Coasts...
   An upper jet will nose into northern California, with lowering
   heights across the Pacific Northwest. Instability will be maximized
   along the Oregon Coast during the day, with around 200 J/kg MUCAPE
   beneath very cold temperatures aloft. With the surface low over the
   Olympic Peninsula, low-level winds will become veered/westerly,
   resulting in mainly straight hodographs. Deep-layer shear will be
   strongest across southwest Oregon into northern California near the
   midlevel jet. Scattered low-topped showers and thunderstorms are
   expected throughout the day over western Oregon and after 18Z into
   northern California. Both cold air aloft and long hodographs will
   favor cellular activity into northern California, and very small
   hail and gusty winds will be possible. Weak instability should
   preclude a severe threat.

   ...Southern California...
   A compact shortwave trough will move across southern CA through the
   morning, providing rapidly cooling temperatures aloft. As such,
   thermodynamic profiles will become increasingly favorable for
   thunderstorms. However, the threat is only expected to last a few
   hours given the rapid motion of the system. A broken band of
   convection should be ongoing over the ocean at 12Z Friday, ahead of
   the vorticity maximum aloft. Despite strong winds aloft, low-level
   winds will weaken and veer, suggesting sub-severe wind gusts.
   However, cold air aloft could potentially result in small hail,
   especially at higher elevations. The threat of thunderstorms should
   end as this activity crosses the Coastal Range by 18Z.

   ..Jewell.. 12/23/2021

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