Dec 24, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 24 17:30:04 UTC 2021 (20211224 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211224 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211224 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211224 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211224 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211224 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 241730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CST Fri Dec 24 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Pacific Coast and
   in portions of the Ohio Valley on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A progressive and modestly amplified large-scale pattern will exist
   across the CONUS on Saturday/Christmas day and night. Thunderstorms
   will remain possible along parts of the West Coast as an upper
   trough continues to amplify over the region. 

   ...California...
   As the aforementioned upper trough amplifies, steep lapse rates and
   modest buoyancy will be conducive for isolated low-topped
   thunderstorms along coastal areas, and possibly into interior valley
   areas. Several convection-allowing models suggest some potential for
   semi-organized storms Saturday morning into afternoon across
   north-central California including the Bay vicinity. Although
   organized severe storms currently do not appear probable, small hail
   and gusty winds could occur given weak surface based-buoyancy and
   strengthening winds between 1-5 km AGL. The overall setup will be
   reevaluated in subsequent Day 1 Outlooks in regards to potential for
   a few severe storms.

   ...Ohio Valley...
   A low-amplitude shortwave trough and warm/moist advection, with a
   modestly moist warm sector (50s F surface dewpoints), should yield
   at least some thunderstorms across the region on Christmas Day.
   Overall buoyancy will remain weak and most of these thunderstorms
   should remain slightly elevated. While severe storms are not
   currently expected, a few convectively enhanced wind gusts cannot be
   entirely discounted at this juncture, particularly if/where upper
   50s F surface dewpoints materialize ahead of the
   southeastward-advancing cold front.

   ..Guyer.. 12/24/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z