Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 250603
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED FOR SYNOPSIS GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTION
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected along the West Coast from Washington to
northern California through the day Sunday with isolated lighting
possible in portions of eastern Missouri into Illinois/Indiana
Sunday evening and Sunday night.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will be located near the Four Corners
region at the beginning of the period and will move northeast to the
Upper Midwest by early Monday morning. A strong lee cyclone is
anticipated at the beginning of the period. However, this surface
low is expected to fill as it lifts northeast as the upper-level
trough lifts quickly northeastward and becomes less amplified.
...Midwest...
Low 60s dewpoints are expected to advect as far north as southern
Illinois and southern Indiana by early Monday morning. However,
despite this moistening warm sector, a stout EML is expected to keep
the airmass capped, limiting surface based storm development.
Elevated convection is possible from northern Missouri into Illinois
and western Indiana as isentropic ascent strengthens Sunday evening.
850mb trajectories from the western Gulf will meet this zone of
isentropic ascent Sunday evening which should increase elevated
instability to the north of the surface front. Instability will
likely remain too limited for a severe threat from this activity.
..Bentley.. 12/25/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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