Dec 25, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 25 17:02:34 UTC 2021 (20211225 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211225 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211225 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211225 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211225 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211225 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 251702

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1102 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Northwest
   Coastline, portions of the Inter-Mountain West, and eastern Missouri
   into Indiana Sunday into Sunday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad cyclonic upper flow will prevail across the western two thirds
   of the CONUS tomorrow/Sunday, with embedded mid-level impulses
   pivoting around the cyclonic flow aloft. A surface low will develop
   during the day across the Pacific Northwest as another surface low
   occludes while ejecting into the Upper MS Valley Sunday night. 

   As a mid-level impulse impinges on the Pacific Northwest Coastline,
   -15 to -20C 700 mb temperatures aloft will overspread a moist marine
   low-level airmass, generating enough buoyancy in the -10 to -20C
   layer to support charge separation in stronger updrafts. Adequate
   deep-layer ascent should promote isolated thunderstorm potential
   throughout the day. Another mid-level impulse will traverse the
   Interior West, with cold temperatures aloft and deep-layer ascent
   supporting a couple of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Later in
   the evening, the mid-level impulse will de-amplify while propagating
   northeast towards the Upper MS Valley in tandem with the surface
   low. A capped, marginally unstable low-level airmass will advect
   northward to the mid MS/OH Valley tomorrow night, with a couple of
   elevated thunderstorms possible in a warm-air advection regime atop
   the MLCINH layer.

   ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z