Dec 26, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Dec 26 06:56:35 UTC 2021 (20211226 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211226 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211226 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211226 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211226 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211226 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 260656

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 AM CST Sun Dec 26 2021

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the California Coast
   and from eastern Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains
   Monday morning to southern Quebec by early Tuesday morning. In
   addition, a second shortwave trough will eject from the western
   CONUS trough Monday and move to the southern/central High Plains by
   early Tuesday morning. A surface low pressure center will weaken as
   it moves from central Illinois toward Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, the
   associated cold front will slow and eventually become stationary
   from northern Arkansas to central Kentucky. Early Tuesday, this
   front will start to lift northward as a warm front, amid
   strengthening southerly flow ahead of a developing lee cyclone in
   the Plains. Some elevated thunderstorms may develop toward the end
   of the period in a zone of strengthening isentropic ascent near this
   warm front in Arkansas.

   ...Portions of the Ohio Valley...
   Some guidance suggests a storm or two could develop along the front
   on Monday afternoon across portions of northern Kentucky.
   Large-scale forcing will be weak and convergence along the front is
   not expected to be that strong. However, weak height falls are
   forecast during the afternoon with a cooling mid-level inversion.
   While a few storms may be possible, confidence in storm development
   is not that high. Only slight boundary-layer heating is expected
   with cloud cover across the region. Therefore, instability should be
   quite weak and preclude a severe-weather threat.

   ..Bentley.. 12/26/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z