Dec 27, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 27 06:46:14 UTC 2021 (20211227 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211227 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211227 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211227 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211227 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211227 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 270646

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 AM CST Mon Dec 27 2021

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across
   portions of eastern Texas and the Southeast into the Ohio Valley
   Tuesday and Tuesday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level shortwave trough will be located near the central High
   Plains at 12Z Tuesday. This trough will phase with the larger upper
   trough which will move through the northern Plains during the day. A
   strong surface low will be present across the central Plains on
   Tuesday morning, but this surface low will weaken as it moves
   northeast. A surface front will initially lift northward as a warm
   front, but will stall near the Ohio River by Tuesday evening as the
   surface low weakens. 

   ...Ohio Valley...
   Elevated instability is expected to remain too limited for much
   severe weather threat. However, some surface-based storm development
   is possible Tuesday evening/night along the surface front near the
   Ohio River. Forecast soundings show the warm sector to be capped for
   much of the day, but higher quality low-level moisture will start to
   stream northward and arrive near the front between 00Z and 06Z. This
   may generate sufficient instability near the frontal circulation for
   isolated to scattered storm development despite a lack of
   larger-scale ascent. The weak instability and lack of stronger
   forcing should limit the severe-weather threat with this activity
   Tuesday evening/night.

   ...Deep South...
   Some thunderstorms are possible ahead of a weakening shortwave which
   is expected to move across the Deep South Tuesday afternoon and into
   the overnight hours. The weak forcing, combined with weak lapse
   rates from forecast soundings would suggest this storm activity
   should remain weak. However, the vertical shear is favorable for
   storm organization, and therefore, a strong storm or two cannot be
   ruled out.

   ..Bentley.. 12/27/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z