Dec 27, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 27 17:28:54 UTC 2021 (20211227 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211227 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211227 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211227 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211227 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211227 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 271728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CST Mon Dec 27 2021

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The likelihood for showers, and some potential for occasional/widely
   scattered/embedded thunderstorms, will exist across portions of the
   middle and lower Mississippi Valley vicinity and the Southeast, and
   northward into the Ohio Valley Tuesday and Tuesday night.

   ...Discussion...
   A longwave trough will remain anchored over the western U.S.
   Tuesday, with a large/broad area of amplified cyclonic flow covering
   the western two-thirds of the country.  Within the broader cyclonic
   flow field, numerous smaller-scale features will traverse the CONUS,
   contributing to areas of precipitation and convective activity.

   One of the more prominent of these small-scale features is forecast
   to cross the Plains early, and then the Mid and Upper Mississippi
   Valley and Great Lakes region through the evening.  

   At the surface, a lingering west-northwest to east-southeast surface
   baroclinic zone extending from the Mid-Atlantic region across the
   Ohio Valley and into the southern Plains will remain largely in
   place.  The boundary will wobble/shift a bit northward and then
   southward through the period, as a weak frontal wave progresses
   east-northeastward along the boundary -- in tandem with the
   aforementioned upper short-wave trough ejecting east-northeastward
   toward/across the Great Lakes region.

   Within the higher theta-e environment near and south of this
   baroclinic zone, showers -- and local/occasional thunderstorms --
   are expected.  Weak lapse rates/modest CAPE appears likely to
   preclude any appreciable severe potential through the period.

   ..Goss.. 12/27/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z