Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 290557
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Tue Dec 28 2021
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS....
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to isolated severe storms may occur across portions of
the Southeast into the Carolinas on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A weakening surface front is expected to extend from the central
Appalachians to central Alabama/Mississippi at the beginning of the
period. This front is expected to become more diffuse during the day
and eventually stall. Most guidance suggests that a weak surface low
develops in eastern North Carolina Thursday evening/night which
could lead to an area of higher thunderstorm coverage in this
region.
...Southeast...
A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the
beginning of the period from western North Carolina to central
Alabama/Mississippi. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will yield
sufficient instability for storm maintenance, especially across
Alabama and Georgia where forecast soundings show MLCAPE in excess
of 1500 J/kg. In addition, shear will be favorable across the entire
warm sector with a broad region of greater than 50 knots of flow at
500 mb. However, despite this favorable overlap of CAPE/shear,
forcing will be weakening through the day as the front becomes more
diffuse and the upper level support moves into the Atlantic. A
slight increase in storm coverage/intensity may occur across eastern
North Carolina Thursday evening/night as a weak surface low develops
along the front. However, severe storm chances are not great enough
at this time to support higher probabilities.
..Bentley.. 12/29/2021
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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