SPC AC 040625

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 AM CST Mon Jan 04 2021

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and night
   from eastern Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. A few
   stronger storms are possible over southeast Texas during the
   afternoon.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   On Wednesday, a positive-tilt upper trough will be situated over the
   central and southern Plains, and will move eastward toward the lower
   MS Valley by 12Z Thursday, providing large-scale lift. At the
   surface, a ridge of high pressure will stretch from the OH Valley to
   the central Gulf Coast Wednesday morning, and will move slowly
   eastward with time.

   A cold front will precede the southern Plains upper trough, with
   weak low pressure forming from eastern TX into LA and MS. Primarily
   mid 50s F boundary-layer dewpoints are expected ahead of this front,
   with low 60s F along the TX and LA coasts leading to a few hundred
   J/kg SBCAPE. Farther inland, elevated instability is also expected
   to develop with MUCAPE of 100-250 J/kg, mainly north of the cold
   front.

   The most favorable combination of SBCAPE and shear will develop over
   parts of southeast Texas during the afternoon. Here, winds will veer
   with height, with 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH developing, which may
   support isolated severe storms. The cold front will be the primary
   forcing mechanism, and will likely undercut developing storms. Given
   this, and uncertainties regarding boundary-layer moisture quality,
   will maintain sub-severe probabilities.

   ..Jewell.. 01/04/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z