SPC AC 230829

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are not expected on Monday across the CONUS.

   ...Discussion...
   A persistent western U.S. long-wave trough is progged to remain in
   place Monday, while anticyclonic westerlies prevail over most of the
   East.  A short-wave trough -- ejecting from the western long wave --
   is expected to deamplify with time as it shifts east-northeastward
   out of the central and southern Plains, and crosses the Midwest/Ohio
   Valley region into the evening and overnight.  Meanwhile, a second
   short-wave trough -- elongated in a north-south orientation along
   the western NOAM Coast early -- is forecast to shift gradually
   inland.

   As this western feature slowly progresses, showers -- and areas of
   occasional/embedded lightning -- are expected, from the West Coast
   states into the Great Basin/Four Corners states.  Meanwhile, showers
   and scattered thunderstorms will spread across the southeastern
   quarter of the country -- as far north as the Ohio Valley and
   Mason/Dixon line.  

   Early in the period, a few stronger storms may be ongoing across the
   Arklatex region, near an Arkansas surface low and trailing cold
   front.  Any lingering/low-end severe risk appears at this time
   insufficient to warrant any severe-weather probabilities.  As the
   low/front, and associated area of convection -- continues eastward
   into a more stable environment, potential for robust convection
   should gradually diminish with time.

   ..Goss.. 01/23/2021

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