Jan 28, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 28 08:13:55 UTC 2021 (20210128 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20210128 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20210128 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20210128 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 280813

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Saturday.

   ...Discussion...
   A mid-level low/short-wave trough initially expected to be centered
   over the central/southern High Plains region, is forecast to move
   steadily east-northeastward through the period.  The feature should
   reach the middle Mississippi Valley vicinity during the evening, and
   then continue into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley region overnight.

   At the surface, an accompanying low is forecast to move across
   Oklahoma/Kansas and into Missouri by evening, and then reach the
   southern Illinois/southern Indiana area by Sunday morning.  A
   trailing cold front will move southeastward across the southern
   Plains, and later across the Lower Mississippi Valley area and into
   the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

   Showers will accompany the advance of the surface system,
   particularly during the second half of the period across the
   Tennessee Valley region and southward across the central Gulf Coast
   states.  A few lightning flashes are expected nearer the pool of
   colder air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with the upper system
   as it shifts east-northeastward with time, within a zone from the
   Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity east-northeastward into Illinois.

   ..Goss.. 01/28/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z